"In reality, the light [at the end of the tunnel] never went out," explains Kit Darby of AIR, Inc., an Atlanta aviation career-specialist firm that tracks the nation's airline economy and assists in pilot placement. "Even in October-the first full month after the attacks-500 new pilots were hired with another 621 in January. We're looking at 5,000 to 6,000 new jobs this year-not as big as it has been, but by no means has hiring ceased."
As for the majors, Darby says, "There will likely be more furloughs in the major airlines. But many of these pilots wont choose to step down during the interim to smaller, regional carriers-the target job market for new pilots. I don't see much reason for a person to turn away from a pilot career, to be honest.
The race is still on. True, the finish line has been pushed a year or two down the road, but the winners will still be those who ran hard during the whole race.
"There's a good argument that this period of reduced hiring is the time to start your pilot training," Darby notes. "During this time, fewer pilots will be gaining their seniority ahead of you. And the smaller airlines, in particular, are making quicker recoveries. ICs important to realize that there are jobs out there. Of the 210 carriers we track, 78--or about 35%-are currently recruiting. Not as good as our last six banner years, certainly. But you'll want to be a competitive candidate the minute better times return."