It is always very tempting in writing a review of trends in the aviation industry during a recession to seek out any positive signs, any glimmer of hope that the slump might be bottoming out. Luckily, in discussing training resources, we are dealing with a topic which is one step removed from the front line economic questions of trading conditions, war, disease and management structures. So although we may be tempted into some of the traditional 'light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel' spotting, we can also focus on the central feature of air transport training resources in 2003 - change.
Pilot demographics
One significant difference between market conditions for air transport today and in previous recessions is that, irrespective of the economic environment, pilot supply and demand is now shaped fundamentally by flight crew retirement rates. Strict enforcement of the age 60 rule means that vacancies caused by end-of-career retirals are both entirely predictable years in advance and fixed by law. Although no one is in any doubt about the dire prospects for many starry-eyed high school graduates who dream of a flying career, retirals will generate an increasing number of vacancies at the top of the system.
The immediate problem this creates for most carriers is where to find the replacement captains and experienced first officers. The obvious answer is "from the thousands of experienced pilots who have been on furlough for the last two years." But eventually those vacated left-hand seats will filter down into better job prospects for graduates from flying schools too.
Atlanta-based recruitment specialist AIR Inc predicts 1,310 pilot retirals from US airlines in 2003, increasing to 2,064 in 2008, and averaging 2,000 a year over that period. These form a sizeable proportion of AIR Inc's predicted 6,000-7,000 new US airline pilot jobs this year.
At the other end of the scale there are increasing concerns about the industry's ability to attract the right people to airliner flight decks. Pay, pension and benefits cuts, increased paperwork and management tasks for pilots are just the beginning of a list of negative influences. The tip of the decline of traditional pilot handling skills in favour of systems management competencies and much more intrusive security procedures onboard and at airports are conspiring to turn a job, which has traditionally been the stuff of dreams, into just another means to the monthly pay cheque.
The immediate solution to this has to be in tailoring the training product to more accurately deliver what the airlines need. At the same time it must also ensure that new recruits are fully aware of the operating environment and culture of their future employers long before they get into that right hand seat. Programmes such as Oxford Aviation Training's Airline Preparation Programme (APP) and the CTC-McAlpine Aviation cadetship scheme in the UK, have set out to do this. There are also many joint training and recruitment programmes run by pilot colleges and regional airlines in the USA.
These programmes vary in detail but typical features include: